James Howard Kunstler's The Long Emergency is subtitled "Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century," but it doesn't offer much hope. The central catastrophe that Kunstler promises is the end of cheap oil; much of the book is consumed with various scenarios that follow from the end of inexpensive fossil fuel.
Although not always convincing, most of Kunstler's arguments appear sound to the non-specialist. In particular, the chapter on why supposed oil alternatives including hydrogen, hydroelectric power, natural gas, wind power, solar energy, "clean coal," and biodiesel all fail to replace oil. His arguments regarding hydroelectric, wind power, solar energy, and biodiesel seem the strongest: each of these, Kunstler argues, relies on a hidden fossil fuel economy.
Although not always convincing, most of Kunstler's arguments appear sound to the non-specialist. In particular, the chapter on why supposed oil alternatives including hydrogen, hydroelectric power, natural gas, wind power, solar energy, "clean coal," and biodiesel all fail to replace oil. His arguments regarding hydroelectric, wind power, solar energy, and biodiesel seem the strongest: each of these, Kunstler argues, relies on a hidden fossil fuel economy.
In the case of biodiesel, for example, Kunstler explains that the farming of the grain for biodiesel itself relies on fossil fuels. This includes tractors and other powered farm equipment, but also feedstock for the chemical fertilizers used to achieve crop yields unheard of prior to the twentieth century. Transporting the crops to processing plants, converting the crops to fuel, and distributing the finished product to fueling stations together require more energy than the fuel itself provides. Kunstler is less persuasive on the infeasibility of coal:
The (coal-mining) industry says there is lots of coal left, enough to last hundreds of years. This remains to be seen. We have already mined much of the best-quality coal that was closest to the surface and easiest to get. A lot of what remains may be so hard to get that it won't be worth the energy expenditure to get it. There is, in fact, a wide disparity of opinion about how much coal we will really be able to use. (p. 117)
The (coal-mining) industry says there is lots of coal left, enough to last hundreds of years. This remains to be seen. We have already mined much of the best-quality coal that was closest to the surface and easiest to get. A lot of what remains may be so hard to get that it won't be worth the energy expenditure to get it. There is, in fact, a wide disparity of opinion about how much coal we will really be able to use. (p. 117)
In other words: trust me, coal won't save us. Unfortunately, Kunstler's trustworthiness is somewhat compromised by his evident joy (despite his protestations to the contrary) in what he sees as the almost inevitable end of civilization as we know it. He is, after all, a long-time foe of America's suburban ideal and the author of The Geography of Nowhere.
Whether or not his conclusions are believable depends upon the reader's preconceptions. Readers predisposed to trust technology, globalism, and high finance will likely dismiss Kunstler's scenarios out-of-hand, and may trust that technology will find a solution. This is an implicit rejection of Kunstler's sensible though controversial separation of the ideas of "technology" and "energy," where the latter is a mere input into the former, and only glancingly a product of it.
Believable or not, several of the post-oil scenarios in The Long Emergency are fascinating to contemplate: a situation in which East-Asian pirates might harass Seattle has quite a bit of elan, even if it seems rather implausible. If Kunstler is right, however, the future is both stranger and more dire than most of us can imagine.
Whether or not his conclusions are believable depends upon the reader's preconceptions. Readers predisposed to trust technology, globalism, and high finance will likely dismiss Kunstler's scenarios out-of-hand, and may trust that technology will find a solution. This is an implicit rejection of Kunstler's sensible though controversial separation of the ideas of "technology" and "energy," where the latter is a mere input into the former, and only glancingly a product of it.
Believable or not, several of the post-oil scenarios in The Long Emergency are fascinating to contemplate: a situation in which East-Asian pirates might harass Seattle has quite a bit of elan, even if it seems rather implausible. If Kunstler is right, however, the future is both stranger and more dire than most of us can imagine.
